PC98-- Where are we going?
by Alan Zisman
(c) 1998. First
published in Canadian Computer Wholesaler, January 1998
Once, IBM innovated and everybody else copied. But
those times are long
gone. Now, in the chaos that?s the computing industry, it seems like
everybody?s
got a plan, but nobody knows where we?re all going? nobody seems to
have
what IBM-chair Lou Gerstner referred to as ?that vision thing?.
While no longer simply ?IBM-clones?, the vast majority
of computers
sold today run one or another version of Microsoft Windows on
some
kind of Intel (or clone) CPU. As a result, Microsoft and Intel, who
together
are sometimes referred to as ?WinTel? have provided the closest thing
to
a platform as we?re going to find. So it should not be much of a
surprise
that they?ve stepped into the power vacuum to try and provide ?that
vision
thing?.
For the past couple of years, each Fall, they?ve
published specifications
detailing what they expect of the next year?s PCs. Together, last
October,
the two companies collaborated on a set of PC Design Guidelines, with
an
aim, as Intel?s Dan Russell put it, at helping the industry ?move in
synch?.
While Intel does not issue logos to manufacturers who
meet the specifications
(and Russell noted that there are ?No Intel police?), Microsoft
continues
to have a logo program for hardware and software designed to work with
Windows. This will be used to help move product development in the
directions
set out in the PC 98 guidelines.
A PC98 machine (which for the first time includes
notebooks as well
as desktops) will feature at a minimum:
? a 200 MHz MMX Pentium or compatible processor
(desktops), 166 MHz
(notebooks)
? 32 megs of RAM (desktops), 24 megs (notebooks)
? 256 kb of cache RAM
? Universal Serial Bus (USB), IEEE 1394 (Firewire), or PC-Card ports,
with hot-swapping capabilities. Notebooks require USB, 32-bit CardBus,
and InfraRed ports, with IEEE 1394 on a docking station
? USB and IEEE 1394 device bays
? Year 2000 and beyond BIOS-level support
Notebooks will need to support ACPI?Advanced
Configuration Power Interface,
for power management that can be better controlled by future operating
systems? specifically Windows 98 and NT 5.0. Current Advanced Power
Management
(APM) needs to be set at the system BIOS level, permitting only minimal
configuration by the operating system.
The specifications recommend changes to speed up boot
time?for example,
and end to the power-on video memory test, and a minimized memory test,
meant just to establish the size of the system memory. Tests of
parallel
and serial ports, and floppy and hard drive tests at boot-up would also
be eliminated, as part of a move towards eventually making PCs
instant-on
like your home TV or stereo? what Microsoft has referred to as OnNow
support.
Machines designated as workstations have additional
requirements, such
as a minimum of 4 megs of video RAM, and a separate L2 cache for each
CPU
in multi-processor systems. These machines should also support ECC
memory
and 64-bit physical memory addressing. Mini-notebooks are also
mentioned,
as needing at least 16 megs RAM, a P133 MMX CPU, and at least 640x480
video.
Perhaps more consequential is the move to eliminate
the venerable ISA
bus. This 16-bit expansion slot standard was first used on 1984?s IBM
AT,
and has survived attempts to replace it with IBM?s Microchannel, EISA,
and VLB-Local Bus. Those alternatives are mostly memories, but the ISA
bus continues on today?s machines, along with PCI slots. The continued
survival of legacy ISA components however, is the biggest reason that
Plug
and Play on today?s machines so often more resembles Plug and Pray.
Still, Microsoft and Intel don?t think that
manufacturers are quite
ready yet to bite the bullet and completely eliminate the ISA bus. As a
result, inclusion of the ISA bus is an option for 1998? but it?s widely
expected that support for this classic but outdated piece of technology
will be removed from the PC99 specs. It?s hoped that by then, higher
performance
USB and Firewire peripherals will be common, and that ISA devices will
no longer be needed or wanted in new systems.
As part of the move to USB and Firewire, expect to see
external device
bays, so that devices that now are typically added only by removing the
PC?s case and fiddling inside, will simply be plugged into an external
bay. Compaq showed off such a system at November?s Comdex, with two
bays
in the front of the PC?s case, which allowed fast and easy installation
of DVD, CD-ROM, hard drives and more.
Operating system-wide support for these proposed
changes can be expected
next year with the release of Windows 98 and NT 5.0. In the meantime,
Windows
95B SR2.1 includes USB support, with device drivers being written by
peripheral
manufacturers.
Intel has always had ?the vision thing?? they?ve known
where they want
to take us. Sometimes, in this industry, though, we don?t seem to get
there
as fast as expected.
For example, six months after Intel introduced the
Pentium-II, redesigning
motherboards in the process, there?s increasing evidence that the
P-II?s
Slot-1 may not provide much of a performance increase over earlier
system
designs. Customers are noticing that higher-priced P-II systems seem to
providing only a small performance gain over more affordable Pentium or
clone Windows 95 systems. Similarly, impartial tests found a minimal 5%
performance increase comparing top of the line 300 MHz P-II systems to
less expensive 266 MHz systems.
The result, for Intel, has been lower than expected
sales of Pentium
IIs, followed by price cuts. (233 and 266 MHz P-IIs are currently offer
a good price/performance ratio). To questions about performance,
Intel?s
response is to ?just wait for Slot 2?? the next generation where,
presumably
it will be done right. Slot 2, however, will initially limited to
workstations
and servers. In addition, it?s expected that in 1998, Intel will be
phasing
out current Socket 7 MMX Pentium CPUs in favor of a new P-II design
lacking
the current model?s L2 cache RAM on the card. The result will be sold
at
a lower price, but offering lower performance. On the high end, expect
to see 400 MHz Pentium II models sometime around February.